DTN Midday Livestock Comments          06/24 12:07

   Hog Futures Continue Lower

   Active pressure quickly moved into hog and feeder cattle trade through the 
morning with increased underlying pressure sparking widespread liquidation. 
Live cattle futures remain lightly traded, but mixed in a narrow to moderate 
range.

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

General Comments

   Triple-digit losses have swept through hog trade, adding to the already weak 
market structure seen last week. Nearby hog futures are posting $2 per cwt 
losses at midday with technical weakness developing through the entire complex. 
Corn futures are higher in light trade. July corn futures are 4 cents higher. 
Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 40 points higher with 
NASDAQ down 4 points. 

   LIVE CATTLE:

   Mixed trade is seen through the entire live cattle complex with nearby gains 
offsetting limited follow through pressure in deferred contracts. Gains during 
the morning in June and August futures has helped to bring a sense of stability 
to the market despite strong pressure in feeder cattle and hog trade. This 
could limit further losses during the end of the session, even though prices 
remain generally weak. Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped with bids and 
asking prices unavailable. Show list distribution and inventory taking is the 
main focus across the entire market Monday, with additional packer interest 
likely over the next couple of days. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, 
$0.79 higher (select) and up $0.27 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 50 
total loads reported (33 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, no 
loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Underlying pressure continues to hold in feeder cattle trade with initial 
weakness Monday morning gaining momentum as the session continues. This is 
adding increased pressure to the complex with futures $1.30 to $1.90 per cwt 
lower at midday. Despite the limited moves in corn prices and mixed live cattle 
trade, renewed bearishness is seen in feeder cattle futures as prices have 
broken through May lows, once again establishing new contract lows in nearby 
contracts. This is likely to further weaken feeder cattle trade through the 
near future, as traders focus on prices below $132 per cwt.

   LEAN HOGS: 

   Active pressure continues to develop through lean hog futures trade with 
losses of $2 per cwt in nearby contracts. The underlying weakness seen through 
the entire complex as technical pressure continues to develop and prices erode 
is adding to commercial liquidation across the complex. Expanded limits are 
available Monday following Friday's limit losses, but at this point losses have 
been limited to $2 per cwt in most contracts months. Cash prices are lower on 
the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down 
$1.53 at $72.32 per cwt with the range from $64 to $75 on 4,118 head reported 
sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota 
Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values firmed following sharp gains in rib 
and belly cuts. Pork cutouts added $0.73 per cwt at $77.46 per cwt with 123 
loads traded. Lean hog index for 6/20 is $79.14, down 0.41, with a projected 
two-day index is unreported due to delays.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


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