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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/17 11:33

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Soybeans lead trade lower at midday, only Minneapolis wheat is higher.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 70 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade is higher. Precious 
metals are lower with gold down 2.10.  


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade continuing slide after 
the poor finish Thursday. Weakness could continue going into the long weekend 
for Presidents Day with profit taking from the recent rally. Ethanol margins 
remain under pressure this morning. The USDA announced 194,112 metric tons of 
corn sold to Japan split between old and new crop. Support is at the $3.71 
10-day which we are testing this morning then the $3.68 20-day. Resistance is 
the $3.80 high this week, and then the $3.87 multi-month high.


   Soybean trade is 7 to 12 cents lower with trade followong through lower 
after the poor close Thursday. Meal is $3 to $4 lower and oil is 50 to 60 
points lower. The firmer Real continues to limit Brazilian export 
competitiveness which has been supportive for near term US demand but harvest 
will provide bushels for the market to deal with as the export pipeline fills. 
On the March soybean chart we broke below nearby support levels yesterday with 
the 20-day at $10.45 becoming resistance, and the 50-day at $10.35 now support 
which is trying to hold at midday, with the 200-day at $10.18 below that.


   Wheat trade is following the row crops lower this morning with trade 1 to 5 
lower on the winter wheat, but flat to 2 firmer on the Minneapolis as the 
protein spreads build this morning. The warm stretch will continue to raise 
concerns about breaking dormancy early, with the more extended forecast showing 
potentially for a cold snap into early March for the western belt. Better 
moisture is expected for Kansas in the next week. On the March Kansas City 
contract support is at the $4.54 10-day then the $4.51 200-day. Resistance is 
at the seven-month high at $4.74. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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