DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/22 11:32
Grains Higher at Midday
Beans are firm ahead of the holiday; pulling wheat and corn higher at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is lower at midday with the Dow down 50 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 50 points lower.
Energies are firmer with crude 1.00 higher. Livestock trade is higher. Precious
metals are higher with gold up $8.90.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with December trade hanging
around the $3.45 level heading towards the holiday break. The weekly ethanol
report showed production 1.9% higher, stocks 1.86% higher, and gasoline demand
4.61% higher. Both ethanol and corn futures are showing no real reaction with
the trade around unchanged. Corn basis and carry has shown further improvement
with carry getting close to 11 cents this week on the Dec to March spread;
seasonally we see this improvement giving incentives to pull grain out of
storage. Reminder we have regular trading hours today, and then only open at
8:30 Friday and close at 12:05 for the Holiday. On the December chart support
is the 10-day at $3.42, with the low at $3.36 1/4 below that. Resistance is at
the $3.48 3/4 50-day moving then the $3.58 6-week high.
Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents higher at midday with January nearby trade
working towards the $10 level again. Meal is $6 to $7 higher and oil is 10 to
20 points lower. South American weather looks like more of the same in the near
term, with the Argentina forecast showing quite a bit of daily flux, with
overall issues remaining limited for now but focus will ramp up as we head to
December. Export business has been quiet for the bulk of November on the daily
wire, but the firmer overnight trade likely indicated some business may be
getting done. Basis has continued to firm at processors. On the January chart
futures moved back above all the major moving averages, with the 20-day at
$9.86 the first level of support which we are just above, and the recent high
at $10.08 the next level of resistance.
Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with
trade moving back to resistance points heading towards the break. The plains
look pretty warm and dry the next 7-12 days, which will attract more attention
heading to dormancy. Spillover support from row crops will be needed to help
with short covering with more support showing up today. Basis has firmed a bit
on the plains in recent days but overall remains wide. On the December Kansas
City support is the $4.13 1/2 low, with the 10-day and 20-day at $4.23, as
resistance which we are challenging at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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