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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/17 11:44

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are firmer at midday, corn mixed, and wheat weaker.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures up 160. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are 
weaker with crude down 1.90. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down 1.30. 


   Corn trade is mixed in quiet midday trade with the December contract holding 
support. The harvest pace should begin to build again the next few days with 
the more open weather and some sunshine drying out some fields. The weekly 
ethanol report is expected to showed production down 29,000 barrels, and stocks 
up 109,000 barrels. The export market has been quieter in recent days on the 
daily wire. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better harvest 
pace. The weakness in crude and some dollar strength is expected to limit 
upside the remainder of the day. On the December chart support is at the 10-day 
at $3.70 then the 20-day at $3.66, resistance is at the $3.78 1/2 
September-October high reached on Monday. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade remaining in the 
upper end of the range with light noted chart buying. Market bears argue the 
strength should cease with renewed harvest pressure with quality concerns 
likely to linger. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and bean oil is flat here at midday. 
Soybean basis will likely see pressure again later in the week as farmers get 
back into the fields. Crop losses from the weather will likely take a while for 
trade to sort out which will likely trigger volatile trade, especially with 
overbought conditions. Crush margins remain strong in the near term. South 
America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the near 
term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in Argentina. On the November 
chart support is the 10-day at $8.69, with major resistance the 100-day at 
$9.01 and minor resistance at the recent high at $8.92. 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower with trade sliding back to the lower end 
of the recent range with spread trade continuing to limit wheat upside along 
with the stronger dollar and continued Russian export dominance. The US dollar 
has jumped back above 95 with some midweek buying. Winter wheat planting is 
ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of 
moisture on the plains. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with 
some relief in the drier areas. MATIF milling wheat is flat to lower this AM. 
Jordan secured Black Sea origin wheat on their tender, but the US is getting 
more competitive. On the December Kansas City chart, we are just above at the 
10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.09. 
Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.32.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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