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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/18 11:38

   Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday

   Soybeans are slightly higher at midday, corn and wheat remain weak.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 160 lower. The 
interest rate products are flat to higher. The dollar index is 5 points higher. 
Energies are narrowly mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mostly higher. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2.70.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade trying to follow the 
lead of soybeans and firm back from the fresh lows scored this morning with the 
wet near-term forecast. Harvest should continue to expand in the double crop 
areas of Brazil. Ethanol margins are stable with lower corn and energy prices. 
Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly 
export inspections were strong again at 1.66 million metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress is expected to show steady to slightly lower conditions, and progress 
remaining ahead of normal. On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at 
$3.75 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.82. Nearby 
support is the $3.54 fresh low from this morning. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 4 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing 
solidly off the fresh lows scored at the open of the day session with the 
continued trade concerns. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is flat to 10 
points higher. Bean basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain 
quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values 
rising rapidly on the anticipation of increased Chinese business. We remain 
well away from the key soybean weather time frame keep concerns limited for 
now. Brazil continues to struggle with the logistical issues compounded by the 
trucker strikes with a large shipping line up. Weekly export inspections were 
good at 818,396 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting 
complete except for double crop with emergence ahead of normal, with steady to 
slightly lower conditions. On the July chart, trade has support at the fresh 
low at 8.97 1/2, and resistance the 10-day at $9.52.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 13 cents lower at midday with winter wheat harvest 
pressure coming out of the weekend. Wet weather for Kansas should slow harvest 
in the next week or so, but good progress is likely through today. Spring wheat 
should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence 
along with more rain while Canada remains drier. Australia should see some 
improvement but overall remains mixed. Russian winter wheat is likely to remain 
on the dry side, with the spring wheat cool and wet. HRW basis has improved 
ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Weekly 
export inspections were 372,843 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected 
to show harvest ahead of normal for winter wheat with steady conditions, and 
spring wheat steady to slightly better with emergence caught up to normal. On 
the July KC is back below the 20-day moving average at 5.19 with the 50-day at 
$5.31 above that. Support is the $4.96 200-day moving average.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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